{
  "summary":{
    "application":"phoenix_hot_dry_severity",
    "label":"Phoenix hot-dry severity · EWMA normalized",
    "provider":"ghcn",
    "secondary_case":true,
    "n_display_obs":28462,
    "n_evi_obs":28462,
    "n_ei_obs":28462,
    "start":"1948-01-29",
    "end":"2025-12-31",
    "xi_hat":0.166334329613147,
    "xi_lo":0.156404363177124,
    "xi_hi":0.17626429604917,
    "evi_regression_policy":"FGLS",
    "evi_regression":"FGLS",
    "evi_ci_variant":"bootstrap_cov",
    "evi_bootstrap_reps_policy":"adaptive",
    "evi_bootstrap_reps_used":512,
    "evi_bootstrap_precision_met":true,
    "evi_bootstrap_mcse_max_ratio":0.093423106052009,
    "evi_covariance_shrinkage":0.73,
    "plateau_lo":31,
    "plateau_hi":654,
    "theta_hat_bb_sliding_fgls":0.274220222304832,
    "theta_lo_bb_sliding_fgls":0.25580175314546,
    "theta_hi_bb_sliding_fgls":0.293964874737005,
    "theta_hat_northrop_sliding_fgls":0.273152241780058,
    "theta_lo_northrop_sliding_fgls":0.250192190108721,
    "theta_hi_northrop_sliding_fgls":0.29821932953642,
    "theta_hat_k_gaps":0.413704234291425,
    "theta_lo_k_gaps":0.393374416631991,
    "theta_hi_k_gaps":0.434396953403029,
    "theta_hat_ferro_segers":0.252678718117269,
    "theta_lo_ferro_segers":0.222096462747152,
    "theta_hi_ferro_segers":0.283260973487386,
    "mean_cluster_size":3.64670406724552,
    "ei_stable_level_lo":67.0,
    "ei_stable_level_hi":109.0,
    "ei_northrop_stable_level_lo":92.0,
    "ei_northrop_stable_level_hi":109.0,
    "design_life_level_basis":"calendar_year",
    "headline_tau":0.5,
    "observations_per_year":365.25
  },
  "preparation":{
    "station_id":"USW00023183",
    "source_sha256":"350f31a5dbaa9f6ae551a20b86672e8545c53f43bdf5a56d0a5faca3c632bd62",
    "formula":"max((TMAX - mean_doy(TMAX))\/sd_doy(TMAX), 0) + max((mean_doy(P30) - P30)\/sd_doy(P30), 0)",
    "rolling_days":30,
    "rolling_min_periods":30,
    "baseline":"retained full-year contiguous run; dayofyear means and sample SD, same grouping as original case",
    "baseline_start":"1947-12-30 00:00:00",
    "baseline_end":"2025-12-31 00:00:00",
    "input_readiness_audit":{
      "all_rows":33787,
      "valid_rows":31544,
      "missing_or_invalid_rows":2243,
      "longest_run_rows":28492,
      "eligible_runs":13,
      "selection":"longest contiguous valid run; latest on length tie"
    },
    "retrospective":"full-period climatology includes future observations relative to an earlier date; not a real-time index",
    "dependence":"overlapping 30-day precipitation sums induce persistence in the derived index",
    "all_rows":33787,
    "valid_rows":28492,
    "missing_or_invalid_rows":5295,
    "longest_run_rows":28492,
    "eligible_runs":1,
    "selection":"longest contiguous valid run; latest on length tie",
    "normalization":"past-only EWMA level",
    "warmup_days":30,
    "half_life_days":180,
    "normalization_formula":"Y_t=X_t\/m_t; m_t=rho*m_(t-1)+(1-rho)*X_(t-1)",
    "maxima_period":"annual",
    "months":[
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      2,
      3,
      4,
      5,
      6,
      7,
      8,
      9,
      10,
      11,
      12
    ],
    "ci_scope":"conditional on preprocessing and selected window"
  },
  "eligible_observations":28462,
  "first_eligible_date":"1948-01-29 00:00:00",
  "last_eligible_date":"2025-12-31 00:00:00",
  "ci_reported":true,
  "evi_grid":[
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  "complete_window_counts":[
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    28425,
    28421,
    28417,
    28412,
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    27926,
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    27809
  ],
  "ei_methods":[
    {
      "application":"phoenix_hot_dry_severity",
      "provider":"ghcn",
      "method":"bb_sliding_fgls",
      "theta_hat":0.274220222304832,
      "theta_lo":0.25580175314546,
      "theta_hi":0.293964874737005,
      "standard_error":0.00972765065785,
      "z_standard_error":0.035473863218727,
      "stable_level_lo":67.0,
      "stable_level_hi":109.0,
      "mean_cluster_size":3.64670406724552,
      "ci_method":"log_wald",
      "ci_variant":"bootstrap_cov",
      "bootstrap_reps_policy":"adaptive",
      "bootstrap_reps_used":256,
      "bootstrap_precision_met":true,
      "bootstrap_mcse_max_ratio":0.087875982034686,
      "covariance_shrinkage":0.37
    },
    {
      "application":"phoenix_hot_dry_severity",
      "provider":"ghcn",
      "method":"northrop_sliding_fgls",
      "theta_hat":0.273152241780058,
      "theta_lo":0.250192190108721,
      "theta_hi":0.29821932953642,
      "standard_error":0.012236094235508,
      "z_standard_error":0.044795877038271,
      "stable_level_lo":92.0,
      "stable_level_hi":109.0,
      "mean_cluster_size":3.660962082841695,
      "ci_method":"log_wald",
      "ci_variant":"bootstrap_cov",
      "bootstrap_reps_policy":"adaptive",
      "bootstrap_reps_used":256,
      "bootstrap_precision_met":true,
      "bootstrap_mcse_max_ratio":0.099842610557729,
      "covariance_shrinkage":0.37
    },
    {
      "application":"phoenix_hot_dry_severity",
      "provider":"ghcn",
      "method":"k_gaps",
      "theta_hat":0.413704234291425,
      "theta_lo":0.393374416631991,
      "theta_hi":0.434396953403029,
      "standard_error":0.010468632406821,
      "z_standard_error":null,
      "stable_level_lo":null,
      "stable_level_hi":null,
      "mean_cluster_size":2.417185798721052,
      "ci_method":"profile",
      "ci_variant":"default",
      "bootstrap_reps_policy":null,
      "bootstrap_reps_used":null,
      "bootstrap_precision_met":null,
      "bootstrap_mcse_max_ratio":null,
      "covariance_shrinkage":null
    },
    {
      "application":"phoenix_hot_dry_severity",
      "provider":"ghcn",
      "method":"ferro_segers",
      "theta_hat":0.252678718117269,
      "theta_lo":0.222096462747152,
      "theta_hi":0.283260973487386,
      "standard_error":0.015603191515366,
      "z_standard_error":null,
      "stable_level_lo":null,
      "stable_level_hi":null,
      "mean_cluster_size":3.957594875623424,
      "ci_method":"wald",
      "ci_variant":"default",
      "bootstrap_reps_policy":null,
      "bootstrap_reps_used":null,
      "bootstrap_precision_met":null,
      "bootstrap_mcse_max_ratio":null,
      "covariance_shrinkage":null
    }
  ]
}